US COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY AND THE ALSHABAB TACTICS

In the meantime American leverage on many Muslim countries, deteriorating dramatically and the significance of counter terrorism policy seems to be obsolete; Alshabab appears for speeding up new strategies like divide-and-defeat, outlawing its name “Alshabab” and rankling to the prominent Somali Ulema (clerics). Although it might be a coincidence yet it can’t be ruled out that there must be an analogy for the unfolding events concerned to the respective strategies. America has almost lost potential friends in the region of Middle East and many others in South Asia, would certainly follow the suite sooner or later, but Alshabaab despite it had been driven from Mogadishu doesn’t look like to be studying where the wind is moving to; instead it is implementing yet far more naive policies and strategies that may not only facilitate their eventual decline but would likely led severe consequences on the Alshabab leadership.  

Right after the momentum of indigenous movements inspired by the concepts of democracy, dignity and self-realization broke out in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) earlier this year; American policy makers rightly calculated that it would be very late if right now not committed an American-foreign-policy shift and as a result of their rational decisions the exploitation of East Asia and Pacific regions were recognized as less costly and more beneficial for America, however, the shift policy was largely considered as an attempt to contain the increasingly Chinese influence on those regions. Nevertheless, the American attempt could not solely be regarded for the Chinese factor while it is observable that the American influence on the Muslim minds had abruptly diminished due to combining factors which emanate rightly or wrongly from the conclusion of USA counter-terrorism policy. This assessment had been proven by top analysts like Graeme Bannerman who spoke at a conference in November co-sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace. He said; “our ability to influence is limited today more than at any time in the last 35 years”.  Long before the counter-terrorism policy was not adopted after 9/11 incident as the official scheme to dismantle the disseminated Islamic militants across the world, USA had directly created the Jihadi movements with the help of Pakistan initially intended to defeat the Soviets who 1979 invaded and occupied Afghanistan, but the situation reserved unexpectedly when the same militants attacked the American soil for the first time in the history destroying the heart of American economy. As one American magazine called then; “The American policy went back to America”, the incident was a result of American foreign policy and those militants multiplied now and proclaimed themselves as Jihadi groups dedicated to safeguard the name and dignity of Islam. Bizarrely they killed thousands of Muslim innocent civilians instead of defending them from the danger. Like the policies of 1980s had unconventionally damaged America, the counter-terrorism track similarly not kicking off Americans from pivotal regions but also inflicting comparable casualties to American properties in the frontier war zones.

Soon after the negativity of American foreign policy is widely felt in MENA and the youths of the region had bravely disqualified and inhumanly killed long term dictators who probably were the American instruments, the South Asians, particularly, Pakistanis along with their militants had likewise opted not to be pathetic. With the culmination of the incident of November 26, where 25 Pakistani military soldiers were pre-down attacked and killed by NATO helicopters; the Pakistanis have already lost their confidence on American regimes and blamed them for every desperate situation in their country, but interestingly now the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan – an offshoot militant of Al-Qaeda have given their sympathy to the people and the government, acknowledging that it is for their best interest to join their hands together. Maulvi Faqir, the leader of TTP speaking on an ongoing negotiation between his group and the Pakistani government echoed these remarks on Sunday 11, 2011; “Talks are ongoing in right direction and soon we will be able to sign a written agreement. We have no wish to fight against our own armed forces and destroy our own country”. In return the government has released 145 Taliban fighters, according to the Long War Journal.     

On the other hand, America vacated Air Shamsi base where had been using for the launching of drone attacks after the Pakistani government ordered to do so in the protest of November 26 incident and no doubt that this move have led to the destruction of many valuable military equipments as the time space given to the Americans was hardly fifteen days and won’t able them to deploy all the equipment within the given time. As Dawn news reported earlier when the third Chopper crushed near Abbottobad during the May 2 raid in which Osama Bin laden was killed, American military deliberately destroyed the Chopper and hit it a missile assuming that Pakistani military would furnish it. Similarly 20 NATO supply trucks were torched some days back in Quetta following the closure of Khaybar pass by the government and 200 more were destroyed in the same manner last year by unknown groups.

In summary: The growing decline of the US blueprint in many parts of its traditional allies is a result from the narrow perspective of the counter-terrorism policy and the vulnerability of its valuable materials are just the hallmark of that policy.

Where Alshabab stands?

When the Salafi-Jahadi group which Alshabab belongs have either lost ground or denounced violence in areas like Iraq, Pakistan and MENA region, at the same time the nationalist sentiments overpowered by the religious fanatics as Tip O’Neill also noted when he said: “All politics is local, what they are concerned about is what going on at home not foreign”, Alshabab demonstrates otherwise by introducing new versions of ruling and declaring some unique verdicts. It had a global vision and agenda that stretches beyond the borders and still bedeviling on it while other Islamic groups appear reluctant to the global vision and prioritizing mainly the local interests. Even Hamas never globalized its liberation war against Israel. More surprisingly, its leadership has recently proven to be guilty for not politicizing the clan identity in order to manipulate the youths which many people got alarmed further when three of its top leaders – Abdi Ahmed Godane, Hassan Dahir Aways and Ali Dhere have in a same fashion addressed the importance of clan identity in their Jihadi war. Godane had frequently acknowledged many Somali tribes not he loved them but he praised them for their full admission to the Jihadi war precisely under his guidance and Aways had looked the other dimension and strongly criticized three of Somali clans on last November for what he called “followers of infidels”, while Ali Dhere reportedly said that the Daynile (a district in Mogadishu) inhabitants would completely destine to the heaven since their commitment to the Mujaahiden is crucial to the fight against “Traitors”. Experts on Islamic militants have translated such scenario as a tool to maximize the psychic war within their entity and aimed to differentiate who is on the right path according to their interpretation of Islam and therefore would be easily for them to dominate their militants as long as they can. Ahren Schaefer and Andrew Black on Global Terrorism Analysis had come to the conclusion that even Somali’s most feared Islamists, clan politics is spearhead than everything else for gaining and consolidating alliances.

Nonetheless, on December 4, 2011; a general conference sponsored by Alshabab was concluded in Baidoa – a strategic town in Southwestern Somalia controlled by the group and as the group’s media reported some 85 clerics attended that meeting for the purpose of marking a new Islamic Emirate in East Africa. The declaration followed by the Baidoa meeting was highly controversial and prominent Somali Ulema immediately denounced it and termed it as the most dangerous convention ever produced by this group. The Somali Ulema not only academically challenged the result of the meeting but literally proved that there are much more illiterate figures in the ranks of Alshabab who have neither in a position to lead a Jihadi war nor merit issuing Islamic fatwa. Their outspokenness have further reddened an already disagreement between the top leadership of this entity as some analysts cautiously argued considering the then remarks from Sheikh Mukhtar Robow who publically said that Somali clerics should correct Alshabab if they perceive that the group are wrong! Robow is widely believed to have some diversions from Godane, the leader of Alshabab. While the former mainly localizes the agenda of Alshabaab the latter undyingly globalizes it. Moreover, the name of Harakatul-Shababul Mujaahidiin would no longer be valid from now onwards and it had to be replaced by the Islamic Emirate in Somalia in a move likely to please by the new group recently joined Alshababa, led by Shiekh Hasan Dahir Aways. Although this move was explained as the Taliban-style which proclaimed as an Islamic Emirate in 1996 in Afghanistan, yet it should be considered that the aim of outlawing their name would probably be a confrontation to the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that as per scheduled in 2012, the TFG, would be abandoned. Thus Alshabab had similarly thought by the sole name of Alshabaab which harbours a militia, contextually, will gain no bargaining unless and until a full-fledged Islamic government similar to that of the TFG must be established on their side.

To sum up, the American influence on many Muslim countries have at least diminished if not declined and the belief that the spread of Islamic militants in many parts of the world was partly American job had either ended or failed, and the desire of democracy is highly consolidating accommodation in resistive regions at the same time the Anti-Americanism is in its peak. People don’t hate American people and its philosophy but they courageously rejected the American policies including counterterrorism. For Alshabaab, the credence that Islamic militants is good compared for warlordism has ended futility and their example had extraordinary worsened the country’s already bleak, the wise idea is to get the advice from those Somali clerics whom they have rankled and Somali Ulema should stand united and educate the people into the right path.

Abdulkadir Suleiman, MA

References:

1)      Dawn News Paper, December 11, 2011, Pakistan

2)      http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/12/pakistan_releases_145_taliban.php

3)   http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38628&cHash=9495205098a5c14b2464a36d76fd8575

4)      http://www.wardheernews.com/Articles_11/August/Suleiman/28_The%20root_causes_of_the_famine_S-Somalia.html

5)   http://somalimidnimo.com/audio/e1b8a5arakat-al-shabc481b-al-mujc481hidc4abn-22report-on-the-end-of-the-general-conference-for-the-e28098ulamc481-of-the-islamic-states-on-saturday22.pdf

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