The insignificance of Kenyan incursion into Somali territory
By Abdulkadir Suleiman
August 2011
On October 17, 2011 Kenya’s Foreign Minister, Moses Wetangula,
officially confirmed that Kenyan army crossed the Somali border to pursue
al-shabab fighters who have allegedly conducted a series of foreign kidnappings
inside Kenyan territory despite the group having repeatedly denying involvement
in the crime. However, the minister’s announcement had not only come a day
after his army had already arrived at the town of Tabda which is about 120
kilometers east of Kenyan border but, astonishingly, it also came two
days after Kenya officials flew to Mogadishu to legitimately seek the consent
of the Somali government. In addition, neither the Somali nor Kenyan Parliament
has validated the act prior to its implementation. Thus it would likely provoke
legal and political discourse.
Despite Kenya codenaming its actions as “Operation Protect the Nation”-a plan meant to secure its borders and act as self-defense against the wicked crimes supposedly organized by al-shabab militants-on the other hand, it requires more and solid consultations from all concerned parties. Without proper approach and genuine rationality, such decisions would perhaps allow al-Shabab fighters and their sympathizers to perpetuate further vicious activities that can’t be imagined. Its consequences, in turn, would not only worsen the miserable conditions of the Somali people but probably create a nightmare for mothers far from the battlefield. It is in fact convincing that al-shabab has massacred huge numbers of Somali population unlike the conventional way of Somali conflict but a foreign intervention, particularly from the forefront states, is something that Somali people have long before deemed as irreconcilable.
Therefore many Somali citizens from all corners have cast doubt what actually prompted Kenyan politicians to adopt such a policy at a time when al-shabab militants have been declining militarily, in popularity and morally in the wake of the strong offensive by Somali forces along with the African Union troops in Mogadishu. Afyare Elmi, a professor at Qatar University has cautiously underlined that the Kenyan military intervention would rather increase, instead of weakening, the cause of al-shabab. Prof. Afyare further highlighted that Kenya has clearly miscalculated the reality on the ground. He echoed that Kenya’s invasion is a strategic mistake. Because, as he construes, Ethiopia used similar tactics and rhetoric but eventually failed.
Ethiopia’s invasion in Somalia late in 2006 ended disastrously after its army was severely bogged down by ragtag Somali militias employing guerrilla warfare tactics as well as street fighting resulting in Ethiopia realizing how a great plunder it was to go to the Somali capital in the first place. According to some experts, Kenya would similarly face the same consequence if its operation won’t be in time. Thomas Cargill, assistant head of the Africa Program at London-based Chatham House, said; “I would very much hope that for Kenya it would be intended to be an in-and-out operation, and not stick around in Southern Somalia”.
Ironically, the Kenyan army has a less powerful military that lacks experience in battlefields while the Ethiopian army boasts to be the giant of the Horn of Africa. In essence, Kenya forces have been described as ‘exercise-hardened’ while Ethiopia’s is known as a ‘war-hardened’ army. So, it would be better for Kenya to fence its border with boots and avoid crossing the border at all costs.
Despite Kenya codenaming its actions as “Operation Protect the Nation”-a plan meant to secure its borders and act as self-defense against the wicked crimes supposedly organized by al-shabab militants-on the other hand, it requires more and solid consultations from all concerned parties. Without proper approach and genuine rationality, such decisions would perhaps allow al-Shabab fighters and their sympathizers to perpetuate further vicious activities that can’t be imagined. Its consequences, in turn, would not only worsen the miserable conditions of the Somali people but probably create a nightmare for mothers far from the battlefield. It is in fact convincing that al-shabab has massacred huge numbers of Somali population unlike the conventional way of Somali conflict but a foreign intervention, particularly from the forefront states, is something that Somali people have long before deemed as irreconcilable.
Therefore many Somali citizens from all corners have cast doubt what actually prompted Kenyan politicians to adopt such a policy at a time when al-shabab militants have been declining militarily, in popularity and morally in the wake of the strong offensive by Somali forces along with the African Union troops in Mogadishu. Afyare Elmi, a professor at Qatar University has cautiously underlined that the Kenyan military intervention would rather increase, instead of weakening, the cause of al-shabab. Prof. Afyare further highlighted that Kenya has clearly miscalculated the reality on the ground. He echoed that Kenya’s invasion is a strategic mistake. Because, as he construes, Ethiopia used similar tactics and rhetoric but eventually failed.
Ethiopia’s invasion in Somalia late in 2006 ended disastrously after its army was severely bogged down by ragtag Somali militias employing guerrilla warfare tactics as well as street fighting resulting in Ethiopia realizing how a great plunder it was to go to the Somali capital in the first place. According to some experts, Kenya would similarly face the same consequence if its operation won’t be in time. Thomas Cargill, assistant head of the Africa Program at London-based Chatham House, said; “I would very much hope that for Kenya it would be intended to be an in-and-out operation, and not stick around in Southern Somalia”.
Ironically, the Kenyan army has a less powerful military that lacks experience in battlefields while the Ethiopian army boasts to be the giant of the Horn of Africa. In essence, Kenya forces have been described as ‘exercise-hardened’ while Ethiopia’s is known as a ‘war-hardened’ army. So, it would be better for Kenya to fence its border with boots and avoid crossing the border at all costs.
Already it seems that some figures in al-shabab militants who presumably
have soft tones than other Shabab officials did interpret the Kenyan move as an
act of war and warned that Kenya would not feel peaceful any longer. Sheikh
Hassan Dahir Aweys, the kingmaker of Somali Islamic movements who previously
led Hizb al-Islam militant group before forcefully merging with al-shabab
fighters, said right after Kenyan officials flew from Mogadishu airport that “a
wall has been broken down”. He meant that, in the past, there was a peaceful
wall between Kenya and Somalia. He acknowledged that Kenya was previously
respected as a non-target entity due to its avoidance of Somali internal issues
but now, he concluded; it would test the sour of its action. The inspirational
remarks of Sheikh Aweys have been summed up as an arousing call and a rallying
cry aimed at instigating the feelings of new Somali youth fighters inside and
outside of Somalia in the context of Somali nationalism.
Despite the fact that Kenyan tourism industry has been tremendously shaken by the increasing fear of al-shabab militants who reportedly infiltrated into the Kenyan side, it is unnecessary to respond in kind with swift military action. Kenya could have developed some other forms of leverage containing soft power like negotiations and encouraging grass roots projects like using Somali inhabitants straddling the border who have nothing to do with the Ideology of al-shabab. These people are capable enough to provide genuine information concerning the criminals to the Kenyan authorities if they are properly approached. Kenya should also be aware that the USA and her allies in Afghanistan are trying to have negations with the outlawed Taliban. So, if superpowers have understood that technology alone is not enough to winning one’s heart and mind, what would be the argument of Kenya stretching its military might beyond its borders when it doesn’t have the resources to combat loose ragtag militia that has no permanent bases or credible friends? Interestingly enough, it was reported so many times that it is not fair to blame only a single adversary while it is believed that the criminal activities in the Kenya-Somali border are multiple sources – piracy, opportunistic groups, and other organized criminal activities have also played their role. Kenya’s military action into Somalia is novel and unique phenomenon and therefore would underscore a new consequence for Somalia’s prolonged conflict.
Despite the fact that Kenyan tourism industry has been tremendously shaken by the increasing fear of al-shabab militants who reportedly infiltrated into the Kenyan side, it is unnecessary to respond in kind with swift military action. Kenya could have developed some other forms of leverage containing soft power like negotiations and encouraging grass roots projects like using Somali inhabitants straddling the border who have nothing to do with the Ideology of al-shabab. These people are capable enough to provide genuine information concerning the criminals to the Kenyan authorities if they are properly approached. Kenya should also be aware that the USA and her allies in Afghanistan are trying to have negations with the outlawed Taliban. So, if superpowers have understood that technology alone is not enough to winning one’s heart and mind, what would be the argument of Kenya stretching its military might beyond its borders when it doesn’t have the resources to combat loose ragtag militia that has no permanent bases or credible friends? Interestingly enough, it was reported so many times that it is not fair to blame only a single adversary while it is believed that the criminal activities in the Kenya-Somali border are multiple sources – piracy, opportunistic groups, and other organized criminal activities have also played their role. Kenya’s military action into Somalia is novel and unique phenomenon and therefore would underscore a new consequence for Somalia’s prolonged conflict.
Abdulkadir Suleiman, MA
University of Karachi
"Didiinglay dhamaateih"
Comments
Post a Comment